Monday, December 15, 2008

Apple will get decimated by a recession, what else is new?

I just read the article "Apple Loses Some Shine as Mac Sales Slow", wherein analysts warn that "some nicks have started to emerge" with Apple?

Yeah, ya think? Duh.

How about a history lesson for all the numnut analysts out there. In every recession since Apple's inception, Apple has been hit hard. Here are the years of massive downward swings in their stock price.

1983: -60%
1987: -40%
1991: -42%
2000: -78%
2008: -61%

See a trend? Those were all years with massive consumer spending slowdowns. Apple's sales are completely based on consumers. They have no business in business. At all. Only high flying dot com trendy guys spend money on Macs when they have Sequoia's money to play with. The rest of us are happy when Microsoft comes out with a free service pack for Windows 2000, because that's all our employer will give us on 7 year old PC hardware.

As the US consumer goes, Apple goes. And last I checked, the US consumer borrowed all of their money from their home equity to buy Apple's shit. Hyperinflation aside, I'd say Apple will be no higher than 30 in 2 years time, when people are saving their money for government cheese over an shiny new Mac laptop that costs $1000 more than a PC.

ps - My iPhone officially sucks. AT&T sucks. I could not hold a 5 second conversation with a friend while I was in the Safeway parking lot the other day. I wish Apple luck trying to sell this piece of shit phone to consumers at Walmart, if that's their plan.

Whenever the hell Verizon releases an Android phone, I'm so there.

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